Many Washingtonians may dream of a white Christmas but, historically, waking up to one is a long shot.
Meteorologists usually define it as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. By that standard, DC has pulled it off only 14 times since 1893 — roughly about a 1-in-9 chance (near 11 percent) in any given year.
Seeing snow actually fall on Dec. 25 is rarer still. An inch or more has accumulated on Christmas Day only four times in the modern record: 1902, 1909, 1962 and 1969.
The reason is simple and familiar to anyone who has lived here long: late December in the Mid-Atlantic is often a knife-edge between cold enough for snow and mild enough for rain. A storm track that would deliver a postcard scene to New England can leave us with a cold rain, or snow for a time before a changeover.
Some memorable examples in the record
- 2009: The most recent “official” white Christmas in DC 7 inches lay on the ground Christmas morning at Reagan National — leftover from the Dec. 18–19 “Snowpocalypse” storm — but rain later washed much of it away.
- 1960s glory years: White Christmases occurred in 1960, 1962, 1963, 1966 and 1969, a remarkably snowy run by our standards.
- 1962 and 1969: The last two true Christmas Day snowstorm years in DC — and among the biggest, historically.
- 1966: One of the deepest Christmas snowpacks — 7 inches on the ground (tied with 2009 for deepest).
- 2002: The last time DC saw even accumulating snow on Christmas Day at National (a meager 0.2 inches), while suburbs just to the north and west did much better.
- 1993: Perhaps the most disruptive Christmas-time wintry episode — a quick burst of heavy snow on Christmas Eve preceded an Arctic front, then roads flash-froze and thousands were stuck for hours.
Climate change is tilting the odds
Even historically, white Christmases have been infrequent here. But warming winters make it harder to keep cold air in place long enough for snow to fall — and especially to stick through Christmas morning. Climate change has decreased December snowfall, likely reducing the frequency of white Christmases over time.
In DC, a white Christmas isn’t impossible — it’s just special. And when it happens, it tends to come from either (1) a well-timed storm with cold air locked in, or (2) snow already on the ground from a pre-Christmas hit that manages to survive.
