From the Team
This week we're watching a spring that can't quite make up its mind — warm enough to coax the blossoms out, dry enough to quietly worry us heading into summer. The tornado outbreak in the southern Plains is a reminder that severe weather season is very much underway, even as the D.C. area enjoys a relatively quiet stretch.
We've also been thinking about what a developing El Niño means for the D.C. area specifically — not in the abstract, but for your summer commute, your lawn, your weekend plans. That piece is coming. If you have questions you'd like us to answer in the meantime, hit reply. We read every one.
— The Capital Weather Team
⛅ On Our Radar
Warm, Dry, and Watching the Pattern
A pleasant late-April stretch continues through the weekend — highs in the upper 60s to low 70s under mostly sunny skies. Enjoy it. Model guidance hints at a cooler, unsettled pattern developing by mid-May as the jet stream buckles southward.
The quieter story: the Potomac basin is running 2.2 inches below normal on 12-month precipitation. Soil moisture deficits are quietly expanding, and an above-average chance of needing reservoir releases this summer is already on the table.
Quick Hits
☀️ What's Summer Shaping Up To Be?
Hot, Probably Wetter — and El Niño Is the Wild Card
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has the Mid-Atlantic leaning toward above-normal temperatures for July–September, consistent with the warm bias we've seen all year. The bigger wrinkle is ENSO: La Niña is over, and El Niño is expected to emerge by May–July (61% probability), potentially strengthening into a strong event by fall — on par with 1997–98 and 2015–16.
For D.C., that cuts two ways. El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity — welcome news. But it also tends to run the Mid-Atlantic warmer and occasionally wetter, raising heat dome risk when summer convection underperforms.
Summer Signal
NOAA's summer precipitation outlook shows above-normal rainfall chances for the Mid-Atlantic — a potential counterbalance to the heat and a lifeline for drought-stressed soils. The May ENSO diagnostic will sharpen this picture considerably. We'll have a full summer outlook then.
📖 What We're Reading
📍 Local
🗺 National
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